Capturing UK real estate volitility

Volatility, or the variability of the underlying asset, is one of the key fundamental components of property derivative pricing and in the application of real option models in development analysis. There has been relatively little work on volatility in real terms of its application to property derivatives and the real options analysis. Most research on volatility stems from investment performance (Nathakumaran & Newell (1995), Brown & Matysiak 2000, Booth & Matysiak 2001). Historic standard deviation is often used as a proxy for volatility and there has been a reliance on indices, which are subject to valuation smoothing effects. Transaction prices are considered to be more volatile than the traditional standard deviations of appraisal based indices. This could lead, arguably, to inefficiencies and mis-pricing, particularly if it is also accepted that changes evolve randomly over time and where future volatility and not an ex-post measure is the key (Sing 1998). If history does not repeat, or provides an unreliable measure, then estimating model based (implied) volatility is an alternative approach (Patel & Sing 2000). This paper is the first of two that employ alternative approaches to calculating and capturing volatility in UK real estate for the purposes of applying the measure to derivative pricing and real option models. It draws on a uniquely constructed IPD/Gerald Eve transactions database, containing over 21,000 properties over the period 1983-2005. In this first paper the magnitude of historic amplification associated with asset returns by sector and geographic spread is looked at. In the subsequent paper the focus will be upon model based (implied) volatility

Risk measures for direct real estate investments with non-normal or unknown return distributions

The volatility of returns is probably the most widely used risk measure for real estate. This is rather surprising since a number of studies have cast doubts on the view that volatility can capture the manifold risks attached to properties and corresponds to the risk attitude of investors. A central issue in this discussion is the statistical properties of real estate returns—in contrast to neoclassical capital market theory they are mostly non-normal and often unknown, which render many statistical measures useless. Based on a literature review and an analysis of data from Germany we provide evidence that volatility alone is inappropriate for measuring the risk of direct real estate. We use a unique data sample by IPD, which includes the total returns of 939 properties across different usage types (56% office, 20% retail, 8% others and 16% residential properties) from 1996 to 2009, the German IPD Index, and the German Property Index. The analysis of the distributional characteristics shows that German real estate returns in this period were not normally distributed and that a logistic distribution would have been a better fit. This is in line with most of the current literature on this subject and leads to the question which indicators are more appropriate to measure real estate risks. We suggest that a combination of quantitative and qualitative risk measures more adequately captures real estate risks and conforms better with investor attitudes to risk. Furthermore, we present criteria for the purpose of risk classification

European Red List of Habitats Part 1. Marine habitats

The European Red List of Habitats provides an overview of the risk of collapse (degree of endangerment) of marine, terrestrial and freshwater habitats in the European Union (EU28) and adjacent regions (EU28+), based on a consistent set of categories and criteria, and detailed data and expert knowledge from involved countries1. A total of 257 benthic marine habitat types were assessed. In total, 19% (EU28) and 18% (EU28+) of the evaluated habitats were assessed as threatened in categories Critically Endangered, Endangered and Vulnerable. An additional 12% were Near Threatened in the EU28 and 11% in the EU28+. These figures are approximately doubled if Data Deficient habitats are excluded. The percentage of threatened habitat types differs across the regional seas. The highest proportion of threatened habitats in the EU28 was found in the Mediterranean Sea (32%), followed by the North-East Atlantic (23%), the Black Sea (13%) and then the Baltic Sea (8%). There was a similar pattern in the EU28+. The most frequently cited pressures and threats were similar across the four regional seas: pollution (eutrophication), biological resource use other than agriculture or forestry (mainly fishing but also aquaculture), natural system modifications (e.g. dredging and sea defence works), urbanisation and climate change. Even for habitats where the assessment outcome was Data Deficient, the Red List assessment process has resulted in the compilation of a substantial body of useful information to support the conservation of marine habitats

A framework for the development of a global standardised marine taxon reference image database (SMarTaR-ID) to support image-based analyses

Video and image data are regularly used in the field of benthic ecology to document biodiversity. However, their use is subject to a number of challenges, principally the identification of taxa within the images without associated physical specimens. The challenge of applying traditional taxonomic keys to the identification of fauna from images has led to the development of personal, group, or institution level reference image catalogues of operational taxonomic units (OTUs) or morphospecies. Lack of standardisation among these reference catalogues has led to problems with observer bias and the inability to combine datasets across studies. In addition, lack of a common reference standard is stifling efforts in the application of artificial intelligence to taxon identification. Using the North Atlantic deep sea as a case study, we propose a database structure to facilitate standardisation of morphospecies image catalogues between research groups and support future use in multiple front-end applications. We also propose a framework for coordination of international efforts to develop reference guides for the identification of marine species from images. The proposed structure maps to the Darwin Core standard to allow integration with existing databases. We suggest a management framework where high-level taxonomic groups are curated by a regional team, consisting of both end users and taxonomic experts. We identify a mechanism by which overall quality of data within a common reference guide could be raised over the next decade. Finally, we discuss the role of a common reference standard in advancing marine ecology and supporting sustainable use of this ecosystem

Unpublished Mediterranean records of marine alien and cryptogenic species

Good datasets of geo-referenced records of alien species are a prerequisite for assessing the spatio-temporal dynamics of biological invasions, their invasive potential, and the magnitude of their impacts. However, with the exception of first records on a country level or wider regions, observations of species presence tend to remain unpublished, buried in scattered repositories or in the personal databases of experts. Through an initiative to collect, harmonize and make such unpublished data for marine alien and cryptogenic species in the Mediterranean Sea available, a large dataset comprising 5376 records was created. It includes records of 239 alien or cryptogenic taxa (192 Animalia, 24 Plantae, 23 Chromista) from 19 countries surrounding the Mediterranean Sea. In terms of records, the most reported Phyla in descending order were Chordata, Mollusca, Chlorophyta, Arthropoda, and Rhodophyta. The most recorded species was Caulerpa cylindracea, followed by Siganus luridus, Magallana sp. (cf. gigas or angulata) and Pterois miles. The dataset includes records from 1972 to 2020, with the highest number of records observed in 2018. Among the records of the dataset, Dictyota acutiloba is a first record for the Mediterranean Sea. Nine first country records are also included: the alga Caulerpa taxifolia var. distichophylla, the cube boxfish Ostracion cubicus, and the cleaner shrimp Urocaridella pulchella from Israel; the sponge Paraleucilla magna from Libya and Slovenia; the lumpfish Cyclopterus lumpus from Cyprus; the bryozoan Celleporaria vermiformis and the polychaetes Prionospio depauperata and Notomastus aberans from Malta

Odométrie par radar panoramique hyperfréquence en milieu extérieur : utilisation de la transformée de Radon pour l'estimation du déplacement sans capteurs externes

International audienceIn order to make efficient obstacle detection or to create a mapping, SLAM simultaneous localization and mapping being a special case, a good estimation of the sensor's move is needed. Adding dedicated extra sensors to the carrier is the most common solution but not without several limits: Sensors have their own accuracy and range of use. Moreover, extra sensors are not often at the same place and so have different moves from one to another. In our outdoor application, the use of a panoramic radar as the main sensor offers another solution: The properties of the Radon's transform and the use of high resolution analysis ESPRIT allows the estimation of the motion's parameters without extra sensors, by the comparisons of successive panoramic maps. The method have been tested in both natural and urban environments and compared to motion estimated by a gyrometer and an odometer

STAT1-dependent IgG cell-surface expression in a human B cell line derived from a STAT1-deficient patient.

STAT1 is a key effector of cytokines involved in the resistance to pathogens; its identified transcriptional targets mediate the innate immune response involved in the defense against viruses and bacteria. Little is known about the role of STAT1 in adaptive immunity, including its impact on BCR or surface Ig expression. Analysis of this point is difficult in humans, as STAT1 deficiency is extremely rare. SD patients die early in childhood from a severe immunodeficiency. Herein, a SD B cell line obtained from a SD patient was compared with a B cell line from a STAT1-proficient subject in search of differences in surface Ig expression. In this SD B cell line, a complete absence of surface IgG was noted. The mRNA encoding the surface form of IgG was detected only in STAT1-proficient B cells; the mRNAs encoding the secreted and the surface forms were detected in SD and STAT1-proficient B cells. Re-expression of STAT1 in SD B cells restored surface IgG expression and a functional BCR. Conversely, shRNA silencing of STAT1 in B cells reduced considerably the expression of the surface IgG. Although limited to one B cell line, these results suggest that STAT1 may play an essential role in surface IgG expression in human B cells. Possible mechanisms involve regulation of mRNA splicing, transcription, or both. These observations extend the role of STAT1 further in adaptive immunity, including the regulation of BCR expression

Differential roles of STAT1alpha and STAT1beta in fludarabine-induced cell cycle arrest and apoptosis in human B cells.

Signal transducer and activator of transcription 1 (STAT1), a transcription factor known to participate in antiviral responses, acts as a tumor suppressor inhibiting cell growth and promoting apoptosis. To study the role of STAT1 in DNA damage–induced apoptosis in B lymphocytes, its active form, STAT1α, was specifically inhibited by the overexpression of STAT1β, the STAT1α truncated inhibitory isoform. An episomal vector with a tetracycline-inducible bidirectional promoter was created to induce the expression of 2 proteins, STAT1β and enhanced green fluorescence protein (EGFP). The same vector was used to overexpress STAT1α as a control. Expression of STAT1β inhibited the phosphorylation, the DNA-binding activity, and the transcriptional activity of STAT1α, as well as the expression of STAT1α target genes such as p21WAF1/CIP1, TAP1, IRF1, and PKR. Inhibiting STAT1α by STAT1β increased the growth rate of transfected cells and their resistance to fludarabine-induced apoptosis and cell cycle arrest. Overexpressing STAT1β reversed the negative regulation of Mdm2 expression observed after treatment with interferon-gamma (IFN-γ), which activates STAT1, or with fludarabine. Nuclear translocation of p53 after fludarabine treatment was decreased when STAT1β was overexpressed, and it was increased when STAT1α was induced. Oligonucleotide pull-down experiments showed a physical STAT1/p53 interaction. Our results show that imbalance between the antiproliferative/proapoptotic isoform STAT1α and the proliferative isoform STAT1β is likely to play a crucial role in the regulation of proliferation and apoptosis and that STAT1α may regulate p53 activity and sensitize B cells to fludarabine-induced apoptosis